Monday, January 21, 2013

We've Been Snowed By The ''Experts'' !

Hold on to your Parkas people !  In 2000, scientists at perhaps the world's centre of global warming alarmism issued this prediction: ''According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become 'a very, very rare and exciting event.'''  Well, I hope Dr Viner is excited by being in the ''thick of it'' with further snow expected to blanket the UK for the next week, with no end to the freezing conditions in sight!  Western Europe is feeling the excitement too. Three days ago Moscow was on the verge of a traffic collapse as more than 10 inches (25 cm) of snow fell on the city, which is more than half of January's average. In the end of 2012, Russia saw extreme winter not witnessed since 1938, where in Siberia temperatures fell below -50 degrees Celsius. I really don't think global warming is working out as the experts predicted.

As the UK Met Office releases new figures which show no warming in 16 years, NASA scientists are saying ''Forget Global Warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about! It confirms that the rising trend in world temps ended in 1997. The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw ''frost fairs'' held on London's Thames River in the 17th Century(see photo). Scientists say that after emitting high levels of energy throughout the 20th Century, the sun is now heading towards a ''grand minimum'' in its output, threatening cold summers, bitter winters and a shortening of the food growing season.

Solar output goes through 11-year cycles, with high numbers of sunspots seen at their peak. We are now what should be the peak of what scientists call ''Cycle 24'' -- but sunspot numbers are running less than half those seen during cycle peaks in the last century. This suggests that Cycle 25, whose peak is due in 2022, will be a great deal weaker still. It is possible that the solar energy ''slump'' could be as deep as the Maunder Minimum (after astronomer Edward Maunder), between 1645 and 1715 in the coldest part of the Little Ice Age when, as well as the Thames ''Frost Fairs'', the canals of Holland froze solid. It's worth noting that TIME magazine ran a front page story in 1974 explaining that Russian scientists were warning of a coming ice age within the next 100-200 years.

''World temperatures may end up a lot cooler than now for 50 years or more,'' says Henrik Svensmark, director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research at Denmark's National Space Institute. ''It will take a long battle to convince some climate scientists that the sun is important. You would think that any fool would surmise that. It may well be that the sun is going to demonstrate this on its own, without the need for their help'', he added. '' CO2 levels have continued to rise without interruption while warming has flattened out showing a significant disrelationship between the two. CO2 is not a motivator for global warming...the sun's influence needs to be taken seriously.''

Dr Nicola Scafetta, of Duke University in North Carolina, is the author of several papers that argue that Met Office climate models are showing an increasing divergence between the models and the latest recorded data. He said, ''Eventually the difference will become so great that the whole scientific community will question the current theories.''  He believes the Met Office model attaches much greater significance to poor little CO2 (which only makes up 0.0384% of the atmosphere) than to the sun. Meanwhile, one of America's most eminent climate experts, Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology, said she found the Met Office's prediction of the the sun's ''negligible impact'' difficult to understand. "The responsible thing to do would be to accept the fact that the models may have severe shortcomings when it comes to the influence of the sun.'' As for the warming pause, she said that many scientists ''are not surprised''.

The Way I See is becoming evident that factors other than CO2 play an important role in rising or falling warmth. Admittedly, I prefer a warmer climate, as statistically, more people die in cold weather than hot. But I'm afraid, with Cycle 25 coming,  the Sun will let us down in the coming decades with more cooling.  I'm happy to say that Al Gore won't be getting his ''tipping point''.

Nature is about to carry out a very interesting experiment, Ten or fifteen years from now, we will be able to determine much better whether the warming of the late 20th Century really was caused by man-made CO2 , or by natural variability (like volcanos, the Sun or the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans). We're now in the second decade of the pause. If we don't see convincing evidence of global warming by 2015, it will start to become clear whether the models are bunk. And, if they are, the implications for some scientists, the major media, James Hansen and Al Gore could be very serious from an angry public.

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