Monday, January 21, 2013

The Exaggeration Of A Global Sea Change !

The continued astonishing alarmism over climate change comes when the number of cyclones (hurricanes) has fallen, the ''permanent'' drought in Australia has broken, the predicted biannual bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef has not occurred, the predicted disappearance of Himalayan, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets hasn't happen and actually reversed and above-all the predicted horrendous consequences of global warming has stalled for 16 years. Note also that when it comes to real climate change, we've seen nothing in the past half century that the world hasn't already experienced worse.

German veteran meteorologist Klaus-Eckart Puls has done an analysis of sea level rise. Contrary to claims made by fringe alarmists, we see that sea level rise has decelerated markedly since 2003. In his report, Puls writes that even NASA launched satellites TOPEX and JASON 1 + 2 show no acceleration. ''The acceleration calculated by the computer models and constantly reported by the media does not exist!''  Puls adds; ''It is obvious to see that the sea level rise has slowed down significantly. What is certain is that there is neither a ''dramatic'' rise, nor an ''acceleration'', thereby concluding that climate models over the past 20 years are wrong.''  In reality, sea level rises are at a modest rate of 1.8 mm a year -- about in line with a natural trend over the century. So all those Pacific Island countries who have their hands out for United Nations largess to save them will have to wait quite a bit longer.

There is a general consensus stating that ocean temperatures have climbed  by a modest half a degree (Celsius) in the past century and an assertion that ocean acidity has increased due to atmospheric carbon dioxide and will therefore be harmful to reefs everywhere. However....the latest research, published last month in Nature: Climate Change Today, blows away the theory that reefs were doomed due to rising ocean levels and acidification caused by the higher take-up of carbon dioxide in the seas.

Researchers have found a common coralline algae that grows at the leading edge of coral reefs is not as susceptible to changing ph levels as coral because it contains high levels of dolomite. ''Our research suggests it is likely these algae will continue to provide protection for coral reef frameworks as carbon dioxide rises,'' the paper reported. Further counter-intuitive results on coral survival have come from an extended project on Australia's Great Barrier Reef to measure the health of deep corals. It was the Catlin Seaview Survey that found the damage to coral reefs is literally ''skin-deep'', with corals located in deeper water below even the worst impacted sites thriving and in pristine condition. The findings raise the possibility that damaged corals may have an increased opportunity for recovery by recruiting new corals both from adjoining reefs and located immediately below. The early findings from this survey have astounded the scientists involved, including Ove Hoegh-Guldberg who has been feeding at the government ''grants trough'' for the past 10 years tapping into and promoting the-warming's-killing-the-reefs hysteria.

The Way I See It....sea level change has been a constant characteristic of earth's systems. 20,000 years ago oceans were estimated to be 140 meters below current levels and 100,000 years before that, the level of the sea is estimated at 4-6 meters above today's level. Glacial melting as the last ice age ended between 20,000 and 6000 ago resulted in sea level rise rates in ranges of 1 meter per century up to a rate of 4 meters per century.

The coral reefs have existed on this planet for 440,000 years and have endured major and minor sea level rises over that time and have adapted and survived  through it all, even when the Earth's atmosphere experienced much higher CO2 concentrations. Now the Earth is in a relatively mild epoch after coming out of the Little Ice Age (1550 - 1850) and gradually warming up on its own without major human influence. So...CHILL!  We'll be so much richer in a century and I suspect we'll be able to afford to adapt to anything coming our way....and hopefully it's not another ice age!

NOTE:  Read my previous posting concerning reefs entitled:  Warming gives us MORE reefs ! (June 19th, 2011)

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