Thursday, October 30, 2014

Middle East Chaos Good for Israel for Now !

Israel is benefiting from the chaos engulfing most of the Middle East, as Islamic terrorists fight each other and many Arab nations side with the Jewish state against the jihadists and the nuclear threat posed by Iran. Prime Minister Netanyahu walks a fine line. (photo right)

Hamas has been humbled for the third time, after Israel pummelled the stupid Palestinian terrorist group over the summer, which was started by the murder of three innocent Israeli teenagers. Hamas got what it deserved....Big Time!  Hezbollah in Lebanon and Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) are busily killing other Arabs.

Egypt is effectively collaborating with Israel on security and intelligence matters. Just today it has initiated blasting a hugh 500 meter-wide buffer zone along the border with Gaza and blocking the smuggling tunnels with a water-filled moat.. Also Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are on the same side as Israel in the truggle against terrorism and a nuclear-armed Iran.

Turkey -- once an Israeli ally and now increasingly Islamist -- is enmeshed in a self-inflicted morass of domestic and regional conundrums with no obvious exits. It's refusal to let Turkish Kurds cross the border and help their comrades fight to defend Kobani from the murderous ISIS army angered the surrounding nations.

Israel is regionally dominant militarily and vibrant economically and technologically. It can do without the support of the vacillating European Union. Its political relations with the Obama administration are chilly, but its ties to the U.S, Security and Defence officials are warm and close.
Trade, investment and educational collaboration with China, India, Japan, South Korea and other Asian nations has never been stronger and is increasing steadily.

However if one thing is certain about the Middle East, it is that things will change.  Iran will continue to strengthen economically, as Western sanctions crumble. It will become a nuclear-armed nation; or that 75-year-old Supreme leader Ali Khamenei will die, (photo left) and a power struggle will follow that will destroy the brutal theocratic regime. If Iran develops a nuclear weapon, it would be a threat to all of its Arab neighbours and especially to Israel.

The Turkish government will come to its senses and stop taking self-destructive measures, or President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will drive Turkey towards joining the club of failed states. ISIS will continue to spread throughout Syria and Iraq and will eventually defeat the Kurds; or the coalition against it will triumph, and the terrorist army will implode into isolated pockets of conflict and control, similar to the fiefdoms of Hamas and Hezbollah. The Kurds of Iraq and Syria would then declare independence.

In Syria, President Bashar al-Assad (photo right)will eventually re-establish control in his three-year civil war, or
the country will fragment into Alawite, Sunni and Kurdish segments. There's the possibility that Hezbollah could return in force to Lebanon after an end of the Syrian conflict, take control of that devastated country and attack Israel, not with rockets, but with guided missiles supplied by Iran. Those idiots in Hamas could overthrow the rival Palestinian Authority government in the West Bank either by elections or by force. Another coup in Jordan might overthrow the Hashemite monarchy.

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in his September speech at the United Nations indicated a new strategy to deal with the Palestinian problem: continue to strengthen ties with Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE and let them impose a settlement. Those Arab nations have a security interest in a demilitarized West Bank and Gaza Strip, as shown by the astonishing offer of Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi to provide an area in the Sinai adjacent to Gaza to serve as a Palestinian state. Something I have called for as the only logical answer over the last 10 years.

The Way I See It........Israel must prepare for such monumental uncertainties I just pointed out. It needs to continue to strengthen its defense forces and intelligence resources. Israel must pursue quiet diplomacy to solidify its gains with Egypt , Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE and continue to tie the region together with a web of natural gas supply contracts. Israel will have to wait until President Obama leaves office to restore political ties, but it should continue to strengthen relations with Asia. Israel is currently in an enviable position, but it must adopt policies and strategies to enhance the positive elements and defend against the negative developments that are sure to take place.

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